Kickstarting Memes and Movements: A Distribution-Based Threshold Model

In social movements, the decision of individuals to participate depends both on their own preferences as well as the behavior of others. Three examples of this type of interaction are the Arab Spring protests, Kickstarter campaigns, and internet memes. One way of modeling this is Granovetter’s threshold model of collective action, in which each agent needs to see a “threshold” level of participation before joining in. Crucial to this model is the distribution of thresholds. Small changes to the population’s mean threshold, as well as the standard deviation of thresholds, lead to very different outcomes. This inquiry seeks to establish that the shape of the threshold distribution determines the ultimate success or failure of a social movement. We analyze both symmetric and skewed distributions and identify these critical parameters of success. The results provide key implications for individuals seeking to either promote or deter social movements.